GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – The World Trade Organization has increased its projection for global merchandise trade expansion in 2026 to 3.9 percent. This marks a significant rise from the 1.9 percent forecast provided in March. The WTO indicated that stronger trade in the first half of the year, adjustments in supply chains, and investments in artificial intelligence contributed to this upward revision. Despite considerable disruptions impacting energy, transport, and fertilizer sectors, merchandise trade volume grew by 3.5 percent in the first half of 2026. The organization now anticipates merchandise trade to expand by 4.1 percent in 2027.
Demand driven by artificial intelligence has emerged as a key factor in merchandise trade growth during the initial six months. Goods enabling AI, such as semiconductors and servers, accounted for 47 percent of global merchandise trade growth. Trade in these products surged 67 percent compared to the previous year. The WTO also noted that worldwide expenditures on AI infrastructure are expected to increase by at least 30 percent in 2026. Robust demand for computing hardware has supported trade, even as other sectors faced disruption caused by conflict and logistical constraints.
Adjustments to global supply chains have been made in response to pressures across major commodity and shipping markets. In the Middle East, crude oil exports declined approximately 24 percent during the first half of 2026. Liquefied natural gas exports from the region fell by 47 percent over the same period. Nevertheless, increased shipments from alternative suppliers limited the overall decline in crude oil exports to about 6 percent worldwide. LNG exports globally decreased by just 1 percent. Additionally, container throughput around the world rose by 3.9 percent through July, as trade routes shifted through alternative ports and corridors.
AI-Driven Goods Bolster Global Merchandise Trade
The more optimistic outlook for goods contrasts with the more subdued expectations for commercial services trade. The WTO has revised downward its 2026 forecast for services trade volume growth to 3.3 percent from 4.8 percent in March. Disruptions in the Middle East have exerted additional pressure on transport and international travel sectors. International tourist arrivals decreased by 0.8 percent in the second quarter, and their overall growth in the first half was just 0.4 percent. Growth in travel spending also slowed sharply between the first and second quarters.
Meanwhile, other service sectors have demonstrated resilience despite setbacks in travel and transportation. Exports of computer services increased by 18 percent from a year earlier in the first quarter, with second-quarter growth estimated at 12 percent. Financial services exports also rose 14 percent year-on-year in the second quarter. The WTO forecasts that commercial services trade volume will grow by 6.4 percent in 2027. It also predicts global GDP will expand by 2.6 percent in 2026 and by 2.9 percent in 2027.
Regional Variations in Trade Growth Persist
Forecasts for regional merchandise trade reveal considerable disparities across the world economy. The WTO projects Asia to lead in merchandise export growth at 9.9 percent in 2026. North American exports are expected to grow by 5.7 percent, while Africa is forecast at 5.6 percent. South America is projected to achieve 3.4 percent growth, whereas Europe is expected to see a slight decline of 0.1 percent. The Middle East faces the steepest decline, with merchandise exports forecasted to fall by 17.2 percent for the year.
Import growth projections also differ substantially among regions. Asia is anticipated to see merchandise import growth of 9.5 percent, with Africa close behind at 8.9 percent. North American imports are expected to increase by 1.4 percent, and Europe by 0.5 percent. Conversely, imports in the Middle East are forecast to decrease by 15.4 percent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala stated that these latest figures demonstrate trade resilience but also highlight the uneven impact of economic and geopolitical disruptions across different regions.