ROME / RankWire.AI / – The Food and Agriculture Organization projects global cereal output in 2026 to total 2.98 billion tonnes, representing a 2% decrease compared to the previous year’s record. Despite this decline, the total is expected to remain the second-largest harvest in history. The latest estimate is 3.4 million tonnes lower than the July forecast. This decline of 61.1 million tonnes annually marks the most significant year-on-year reduction since 2018.
For maize, the forecast now stands at 1.309 billion tonnes after weaker crop prospects prompted a downward revision of earlier estimates. Unfavorable summer heat and dry conditions significantly impacted yields across key European Union regions, notably France and Poland. Official estimates also led to smaller downward revisions for India and Paraguay. Meanwhile, Argentina and Brazil experienced better-than-expected yields, which helped offset some declines; both countries are anticipated to produce well above-average maize in 2026.
Wheat production globally is now projected at 810.7 million tonnes, an increase of 4.2 million tonnes from the earlier estimate. Improved yield expectations in Canada and Morocco raised projections by approximately 1.5 million tonnes each. Forecasts for Russia and Ukraine also saw upward adjustments, whereas dry conditions lowered expectations for the European Union and the United Kingdom. Despite these increases, global wheat output is still expected to fall 3.8% short of 2025 and remains the second-largest crop on record.
Maize declines drive downward revision in global cereal outlook
The forecast for rice production in 2026/27 is set at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis, reflecting a 1.9% reduction from the revised record in 2025/26. The latest estimate benefits from improved figures for Myanmar and robust yields from main crops in Sri Lanka. These increases balanced out decreases reported for China, the Philippines, and the United States, where rice plantings reached multi-decade lows.
The FAO projects global cereal consumption in 2026/27 to reach 2.965 billion tonnes, marking a 0.2% rise from the previous season. While rice and coarse grain consumption are expected to grow, wheat use is forecasted to decline from last year’s elevated levels. World rice utilization is projected at 559 million tonnes, driven by population growth and increased food demand. Feed use remains significant, especially in coarse grains such as barley in China and maize in the United States.
Global cereal stockpiles remain at historically comfortable levels
At the end of the 2027 seasons, world cereal stocks are forecast to stand at 947.2 million tonnes. This figure is 10.7 million tonnes below the previous projection but 1.8 million tonnes higher than opening stocks. The global stocks-to-use ratio is expected to be 31.6%, down slightly from 31.9% in the previous season. Stock levels are expected to increase in Russia and Ukraine for wheat, while inventories for maize and barley have declined, resulting in a more cautious outlook for total stocks.
Trade in cereals worldwide for 2026/27 is estimated at 509.3 million tonnes, representing an increase of 1.7 million tonnes from earlier estimates. Nonetheless, the total remains below the record levels achieved in 2025/26. A substantial part of this increase is attributable to stronger maize trade, with Argentina expected to export up to 39 million tonnes. International rice trade in 2026 is projected at 60.5 million tonnes, with overall rice shipments still 1.9% below the 2025 record.